Watch the pool of remaining adopters

The idea

Adoption growth depends not only on current users but also on the people who could still adopt. A process can initially accelerate and later slow as that remaining pool shrinks. Extrapolating early growth without a population boundary can create implausible expectations.

Worked example

A fictional neighborhood alert service has 100 subscribers in an area with 1,000 eligible households. If current subscribers invite neighbors, growth may accelerate while many households remain outside. Near 950 subscribers, the same invitation effort encounters far fewer new households. Slower additions need not mean the service suddenly became worse. The team tracks both current subscribers and the remaining eligible pool rather than interpreting every slowdown as failure.

Use it carefully

The pool may itself change as households move, eligibility expands, or the product changes. People can also stop using the service, and one household may hold multiple accounts. Define adoption carefully and distinguish enrollment from active use. A simple diffusion model organizes plausible mechanisms; it does not establish the true market size or promise a specific growth curve.

RETRIEVE. REASON. REMEMBER.

Knowledge check.

Choose one answer for each question, then check your reasoning.